2023 was a challenging year. This year’s Global Risks Report highlights the growing strain we are placing on many of the global systems we rely on. It underlines the fact that we are facing systemic challenges and a deteriorating global outlook. This year’s report covers more risks than ever, but focuses in particular on: environmental degradation – expressed as 5 topics in the Top 10; AI-generated mis-/dis-information; cyber insecurity; societal & political polarisation; lack of economic opportunity; and geopolitical tensions. Please see below examples of how the global risks are interconnected. More information on 2024 can be found here.

Risks-Trends Interconnections Map (EXAMPLE 2018)

Find more about the Global Risks 2024 by clicking this link.

We have to recognise that different people see the world in different ways, using different lenses for interpreting acquired information and knowledge. At The Natural Step, we call these different views “paradigms”. As soon as we have understood a paradigm and how this worldview is built up, we can identify and address any flaws in its logic. Let’s start by having a closer look at a dominant worldview in society today.

THE CYLINDER PARADIGM

Although it is assumed that societal or ecological problems are serious, each problem is seen as a relatively isolated, unconnected event that will come and go. These problems are perceived as necessary by-products of progress with minor, non-lasting impacts on life-supporting systems, for example:

• hunger in Africa caused by droughts
• flooding due to extreme weather
• an involuntary mass migration driven by a (civil) war
• obesity due to unhealthy eating habits
• disclosure of a corporate or political scandal where truth is bent in self-interest
• extinction of a seemingly unimportant species
• an epidemic

Using the metaphor of a cylinder, we move through this cylinder over time with horizontal walls representing only some limitations. In general, these are determined by the availability of resources, people’s tolerance and the insignificant impact on the steady state of both our environment and society. Series of events with negative impacts, such as geopolitical tensions, lack of transparency, inequality, gaps in the ozone layer, climate change, unhealthy diets, air pollution and so on, are perceived as phenomena that we can overcome by economic growth, technological developments and quick fixes.

THE CYLINDER PARADIGM

Aspects of development

These developments are having a larger and growing impact on the biosphere and its ecosystems – some examples:

• human-driven greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels
• human-caused flows of metals and minerals surpassing the volume of natural flows
• a large percentage of land used for agriculture, infrastructure and cities
• synthetic chemicals produced by industries

IN A NUTSHELL

Within the paradigm of the cylinder, it is recognised that there are limits to what the societal and ecological systems can provide. However, it is not recognised that the ability to provide those resources and services is being systematically degraded. The interrelations between the economy, society and the environment are not properly understood, nor are their impact. People therefore tend to underestimate the seriousness of the sustainability challenge.

The United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) summarises the well-being of people in such respects as a long and healthy life, knowledge and a decent standard of living. At a scale from zero to one, the United Nations defines 0.8 as being worth striving for. It simplifies human development and does not reflect inequalities, poverty, human security, empowerment, etc.

The Ecological Footprint shows us the degree of impact on nature’s biocapacity in society’s efforts to keep up with consumption. We have only one planet to live on. In 2012, we had a maximum average of 1.8 hectares per person available. This figure is shrinking due to global population growth. Actual usage, however, equals an average impact of 1.6 planets!

You will notice the two large red dots representing India and China, and the larger blue dot in the upper right representing the United States.

Human Development Index (HDI) related to Ecological Footprint

Planetary dashboard

1. Almost all indicators show that the most dramatic shifts have occurred since about 1950, hence seen as the starting point of the “Great Acceleration”.
2. Nowadays, major earth system trends are directly linked to changes largely related to the global economic system.

From The Natural Step’s point of view, the “Great Acceleration” indicators not only show the enormous speed of change. They also clearly underline humanity’s new responsibility for our planet.

… Earth system trends.

Planetary Boundaries

The funnel as the base for diagnosis

THE FUNNEL PARADIGM

The previously shown cylinder paradigm does not recognise that trends are moving from a steady state with normal fluctuations into a state with abnormal fluctuations, crossing the tipping points of safe operating space. The situation is deteriorating. To illustrate this we use the metaphor of a funnel instead of a cylinder.

NARROWING OF THE FUNNEL

This funnel paradigm recognises that problems caused by errors in societal design have complex interrelations and are systematically weakening society’s support systems. As a global human society, we are not just destroying natural habitats, disrupting essential flows with our waste, and poisoning soils and food. We are doing this more and more, with unknown knock-on effects.

Our current societal developments and structures are not likely to slow down. Some of these effects are irreversible, such as the extinction of current species and various forms of pollution and toxicity. This can be illustrated as collisions with the walls of the funnel.

Systematic degradation makes it impossible to satisfy our basic needs over time, and it makes us vulnerable to unforeseen shocks. It becomes more and more difficult to reverse the trend since future solutions depend on the same resources. In other words, the deeper we enter the funnel, and the more the walls narrow, the more constrained, limited and unpleasant are our available options to solve the problems. The deeper we are in the funnel, the bigger the sustainability challenge.

Scientists keep on arguing about when exactly the polar ice will melt down. Governments pass laws and regulations with good intentions, but without a systems understanding and thereby cause damage elsewhere or at a later time. We might know everything about a specific detail, but lose track of its larger context. We don’t see the wood for the trees. This we define as “reductionism”.

A growing number of organisations and individuals are aware of the major dependencies between the economy, society and the environment. Even if there is an understanding that these are interrelated, very few understand how the three aspects are connected.

UNITED NATIONS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

In September 2015, the 193 countries of the UN General Assembly adopted 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with a view to ending poverty, protecting the planet and ensuring prosperity for all. Each SDG is accompanied by a set of targets for 2030. Governments around the globe are expected to take ownership and establish national frameworks to achieve these goals. The SDGs are not legally binding, but require that we all play our part to reach them. How can we achieve change to meet these goals without ultimate commitment?

THE NATURAL STEP’S WHOLE SYSTEMS APPROACH

Only once we understand that we need to interconnect the various dimensions of the challenge, are we able to recognise what is happening in reality. Based on our key insights outlining the challenge and the creation of a common language, we can change to a holistic view and apply a systemic approach.

To prevent colliding with the walls of the funnel, we first need to change direction and slow down trends to stop further degradation of the systems we depend upon. Then the goal must be to get to the opening of the funnel where the opportunities for prosperity have stopped declining. In other words: a steady state or a sustainable society. This is not Utopia. It is a situation in which the ecological and social systems can continue to support us.